The Impact of Climate Change on Global Ocean Economies

Logan Joseph, Director of Information Technology, National Grid

In 'The expected impacts of climate change on the ocean economy', experts assessed the possible effects of global climate change on coral reef tourism, wild catch fisheries, and marine aquaculture, showcasing the extensive and concerning consequences it will have on the ocean economy. To address an anticipated rise in socioeconomic imbalances, it is necessary to reduce global carbon emissions along with an adaptive approach to managing our ocean resources. Such an approach could boost earnings in addition to strengthening these essential industries' resilience and future-proofing them.

The analysis builds on predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that declines in ocean health caused by climate change will cost the global economy USD 428 billion annually by 2050 and USD 1.979 trillion annually by 2100. New models are used to assess impacts at national and regional levels. While the severity varies greatly between nations and climate scenarios, the developing equatorial countries that have made the fewest contributions to the current level of global warming and who frequently depend on reef tourism and fish stocks to sustain local livelihoods and ensure food security will be adversely affected. The extent to which fish migrate to cooler waters as oceans warm and grow more acidic under future climate scenarios is a significant result. In some areas, this will put fishing villages in danger and raise the possibility of confrontations over relocating resources.

"Unabated climate change could cause coral reef tourism revenue losses of over 90 per cent, while some countries are forecast to see fish stocks decline by 85 per cent."

Climate change will have a substantially damaging effect on reef tourism, which is valued at USD 35.8 billion annually worldwide. If the trend continues, the five largest coral reef tourism industries will see average income losses of nearly 90 per cent by 2100 across all regions. The industry is anticipated to suffer economic losses of up to 66 per cent even if steps are taken to reduce carbon emissions.

To ensure that species are properly managed as suitable habitats move and change, adaptive fisheries management and new cooperative agreements across national, regional, and international boundaries are significant. Many nations may retain or increase earnings and catches in the future using this strategy, but it also emphasises that even the best fisheries reforms will not be able to counteract the worst possible outcomes of climate change. For some nations, building marine aquaculture that is climate resilient and sustainable could be a key component of the solution.

The resilience of ocean ecosystems must be increased through conservation, restoration, and other measures, such as lowering the climatic effect of tourism, to support the preservation of the reef tourist sector.