Atmospheric Data Solutions: Advanced High-Impact Weather Risk Management

Each year, vast tracts of forests and shrublands dotting both the coastal and mountainous regions of California experience multiple wildfires. While climate change is one factor, fires caused by humans are major contributors to the massive wildlife habitat loss, property damage, and number of lives put at risk.

According to California Public Utilities Commission, around 10 percent of wildfires are triggered by power lines and grid equipment under hot, windy, and dry conditions. To prevent wildfires and protect their infrastructure, utility companies need accurate forecast data and analytics well ahead of the onset of hazardous weather conditions.

Atmospheric Data Solutions (ADS) is the answer to preventing the rising incidences of utility-caused wildfires. Its advanced, science-based, operational wildfire weather forecast products empower electric companies to quickly address and efficiently mitigate the risks to their equipment associated with high-impact weather conditions, ultimately helping to ensure public safety.

ADS’s range of AI-powered weather modeling and wildfire vegetation moisture forecast solutions are driven by high quality atmospheric data. This is particularly useful in predicting high temperatures and wind speeds, and low vegetation moisture levels—chief factors for wildfires—in a particular area. ADS also provides utilities with actionable, data-based insights, helping them plan their power supply operations, manage their assets in adverse weather conditions, and alleviate wildfire risks.

“Our weather data helps utilities prepare for load fluctuations, prevent power outages, and avert human-caused catastrophic wildfires that threaten buildings, infrastructure, and lives,” says atmospheric scientist Scott Capps, co-founder and principal at ADS.

Primarily catering to the investor-owned utility sector, ADS’s clientele includes all major power companies in California and the western U.S. It builds customized turnkey weather forecast solutions using the latest computing technology, state-of-the-art automated data generation and predictive analytics tools. These comprise validated numerical weather modeling powered by high-performance computing, innovative high-resolution weather forecasting for atmospheric and wildfire fuel conditions, and historical climatological data analytics.

The Beginnings of Applied Atmospheric Science

ADS is the result of Capps’ lifelong passion to understand weather and atmospheric patterns that affect climates. He earned a PhD and a post-doctorate degree in atmospheric science, and worked with the U.S. Forest Service and electric utilities in San Diego to minimize wildfire occurrences. Capps sought to transform hard science into applied science. By combining his extensive knowledge of atmospheric science and weather systems with his experience in programming, business operations, and forest and utility services, he aimed to solve real world issues. This led him to establish ADS with the goal of developing products that prevent human-caused wildfires.

Weather Modeling with a Difference

A prime example of ADS’s application of atmospheric science to minimize the impact of adverse weather is its

high-resolution weather forecast models that capture data throughout wildfire-prone areas within power company territories. The models can also gain information on possible fluctuations in wind speed, temperature, and humidity over half-mile distances and half-hour durations, by numerically simulating data across 50 to 70 vertical atmospheric layers. This enables utilities to predict potential weather conditions up to four days ahead of a weather anomaly, providing ample time to warn customers, plan the power supply, and de-energize their grids in those areas.

Advanced weather models require large amounts of computational resources to deliver the data to electricity suppliers. For this, ADS designs and installs specialized high-performance computing clusters that use the latest tech advancements like backplane technology, also called inter-node communication fabric technology. Through this, ADS discretizes its weather models and runs them on multiple nodes on the computing cluster, with each node generating forecast data for a sub-region. The cluster nodes communicate and relay the data to the head node, which reassembles the data across the territory. Artificial intelligence is then used to provide further corrections to the data transforming it into an actionable forecast which is then delivered to utilities.

ADS also composes and optimizes the code in its software to automate weather forecast data generation. Simultaneously, it programs the software to send clients relevant and timely forecast data in a personalized, easy-to-understand format. This helps them take the necessary actions to manage or mitigate the effects of future, major weather events.

What makes ADS truly stand out is its ability to quickly build historical weather and fuel moisture climatological data sets— important to assess wildfire spread rates—across the territories and areas of interest of power companies. Leveraging high-performance computing clusters, ADS generates spatial and temporal weather data related to temperature, humidity, dew point, and wind speed and gusts going back decades. This helps them place forecasted weather and wildfire fuels into historical perspective, enabling them to determine the forecast’s severity in areas of operations and prepare accordingly.

For instance, a forecast of low vegetation moisture levels in a certain high-vegetation area can be compared with its corresponding historical weather data. This allows power companies to switch off the grid in that area when high winds are forecast, which may cause the dry foliage to come in contact with power lines, igniting a fire.

Building Relationships, Advancing Science

Along with delivering accurate weather data forecasting, ADS aims to build deep, longlasting relationships with clients. These multiyear collaborations are made possible through continuous engagements with clients, with yearly meetings to discuss and revise the specifications they need in weather forecasting products.

The true extent of the value delivered by ADS was best realized by a leading electricity provider in California. Years before, it accidentally ignited a major wildfire when the lack of adequate weather data prevented them from switching off power in the forest area. To avoid similar devastating events, they approached ADS.

In response, it designed a powerful weather and potential wildfire forecast solution that generated the forecast data and historical climatological data across their territory. This provided early insights into the development of possible high-risk wildfire conditions two to three days in advance.

For over a decade, the power company has used ADS’s data to determine the right time and place to de-energize power circuits and prevent catastrophic wildfires. This empowers them to continue to successfully avert human-caused wildfires in their territory, saving thousands of homes and countless lives. It also helps them protect their infrastructure, plan the power supply, and optimize the amount of time power is shut off, which enables them to deliver greater experiences to their customers.

This unrelenting drive to serve clients with newer and more refined atmospheric science products is evidenced by ADS’s constant efforts to improve its solutions’ accuracy and efficiency. In this journey, its team of experts considers clients to be guides in product development and deeply values their feedback in developing robust weather forecast solutions that meet and exceed expectations. The team meets weekly to discuss future products that align with its short-and long-term goals and customer needs, with a unified vision of further cementing ADS’s position as an industry leader.

“Ads is on a mission to cost-effectively deliver more detailed weather and wildfire forecast data and sophisticated weather prediction solutions to utilities.”

This dedication to going the extra mile is a reflection of ADS’s boutique company culture. It enables the team to offer customized solutions and promptly respond to customer queries with expert advice. ADS’s 24/7 availability for support and maintenance is instrumental in its success since its inception in 2015.

The Go-To Business and Science Partners

ADS is on a mission to cost-effectively deliver more detailed weather and wildfire forecast data and sophisticated weather prediction solutions to utilities. While power companies remain its primary focus, it also looks forward to meeting the need for high-precision, fully turnkey, customized weather modeling solutions in other industries.

“Our company was built to grow by fostering relationships and trust and being a great business and science partner in the utility industry,” states Capps.

True to these words, it treats clients as partners on their journey to be fully prepared to protect their utility assets and safely deliver electricity to customers. ADS is ever ready to leverage the latest cutting-edge technology, science, and resources to empower power utilities to build a safer and more environment-friendly world.